Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
What is Systems Thinking?
Systems Thinking (ST) is a way of exploring and sharing our thoughts on what drives performance in a system.
What is a system?
A system is a collection of parts which inter-relate to function as a whole. Systems come in all sizes. I am a system. My family is a system. I am part of larger systems such as the business I work for, my local community, my country, the world.
How does Systems Thinking help us?
ST provides us with a simple language for capturing the components and relationships in a system within a diagram. These diagrams enable us to share and challenge our understanding of the way the system works. Ultimately thinking must be linked to a change in behaviour if we are to see an improvement in performance.
The Dynamic Performance Management (DPM) cycle is a means of linking systems thinking to ongoing improvement of results. The DPM cycle has four components: Observing, Thinking, Choosing and Acting.
Acting, Choosing, ThinkIng, ObserviNg = ACTION…
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Let’s consider each component in turn:
Observe
The cycle usually starts with observation. That is to say with something being brought to our attention. Perhaps it is a problem or a desire to improve performance or maybe just curiosity to understand.
Good observation is about being open, receptive and attentive. It is about noticing the behaviour patterns that are happening in the world around us.
Let me illustrate this process with an example. Celebrity chef, Jamie Oliver, has been actively campaigning politicians with a manifesto he has designed to tackle the UK's growing problems with obesity. Jamie’s manifesto makes the observation that “our diet is helping to turn us into one of the most obese countries in the world”. For the full manifesto see http://www.jamiesministryoffood.com/content/c4/news/jamies-manifesto.html
Observe
The cycle usually starts with observation. That is to say with something being brought to our attention. Perhaps it is a problem or a desire to improve performance or maybe just curiosity to understand.
Good observation is about being open, receptive and attentive. It is about noticing the behaviour patterns that are happening in the world around us.
Let me illustrate this process with an example. Celebrity chef, Jamie Oliver, has been actively campaigning politicians with a manifesto he has designed to tackle the UK's growing problems with obesity. Jamie’s manifesto makes the observation that “our diet is helping to turn us into one of the most obese countries in the world”. For the full manifesto see http://www.jamiesministryoffood.com/content/c4/news/jamies-manifesto.html
To do this well we have to be fully engaged. I think that this is a natural skill for a child. Watch any family with young children in a pram shopping in a supermarket. The child is wide –eyed noticing the wonder of everything around him/her. In comparison the adults often appear in a daze or they have their shopping list, rushing around pushing stuff in their trolley and then making a beeline for the check out. They are “end gaining”. That is, trying to get it over with as quickly as possible so that they can get on and do something else.
Too much fixation on goals means that we don’t notice what’s going on right now. I think that we need to try to notice more things around us. Ask “why have I been shown this?” “What can I learn from this?” “What should I do differently now?” The world is full of meaning. But we have to open our eyes and hearts and notice it.
We can use a simple chart called a behaviour over time graph (BOTG) to track the behaviour pattern we are observing.
We can plot BOTGs with objective (hard) measurements, eg blood pressure, weight, or with subjective (softer) judgements eg how energetic do I feel on a subjective scale between 1 and 10.
Continuing to develop our "obesity" example below is a BOTG of the percentage of UK adults classified as obese by year (Source: http://www.ic.nhs.uk/webfiles/publications/opan09/OPAD%20Feb%202009%20final.pdf).
Too much fixation on goals means that we don’t notice what’s going on right now. I think that we need to try to notice more things around us. Ask “why have I been shown this?” “What can I learn from this?” “What should I do differently now?” The world is full of meaning. But we have to open our eyes and hearts and notice it.
We can use a simple chart called a behaviour over time graph (BOTG) to track the behaviour pattern we are observing.
We can plot BOTGs with objective (hard) measurements, eg blood pressure, weight, or with subjective (softer) judgements eg how energetic do I feel on a subjective scale between 1 and 10.
Continuing to develop our "obesity" example below is a BOTG of the percentage of UK adults classified as obese by year (Source: http://www.ic.nhs.uk/webfiles/publications/opan09/OPAD%20Feb%202009%20final.pdf).
The key to understanding is asking why. Whys make us wise!
We must ask what is causing this behaviour pattern I am observing.
Why has obesity been increasing in the UK?
What makes this vary ie go up and down?
What helps this to improve? What gets in the way?
How do these things inter-relate?
ST gives us a way of capturing these interactions in a cause and effect map. These maps help us to develop a deeper understanding the cause and effect structures driving the behaviour patterns we are observing.
See the section titled “Language of systems” below.
Choose
If we want to influence the behaviour pattern we need to do something differently and so we must choose. This is the next stage in the cycle.
We must ask what is causing this behaviour pattern I am observing.
Why has obesity been increasing in the UK?
What makes this vary ie go up and down?
What helps this to improve? What gets in the way?
How do these things inter-relate?
ST gives us a way of capturing these interactions in a cause and effect map. These maps help us to develop a deeper understanding the cause and effect structures driving the behaviour patterns we are observing.
See the section titled “Language of systems” below.
Choose
If we want to influence the behaviour pattern we need to do something differently and so we must choose. This is the next stage in the cycle.
In order to understand the options open to us we have to understand which things in our cause and effect map we are able to influence. Also to make a better choice we must understand the consequences of the choices open to us. We can do this by thinking through the knock on impact of changing things on the system as a whole using our cause and effect maps.
Now for the philosophy!
All we have in life is time and choice as to how to use that time. I am the sum of all my previous choices and those of my parents before me.
We are always making choices. To live is to choose. Even doing nothing is a choice. Some choices are better than others. What do I mean by better? Better choices are conscious choices. Better choices give us more choices in future. It is rare that we have no choice (although we will attempt to convince ourselves that it is so). Lots of choice can be overwhelming and confusing and means that we must take greater care as we make our choices. We reveal our choices through our behaviours. We can only influence our own behaviour. It is through our behaviour that we influence others. We are always influencing others through our behaviours.
Act
The final stage in the DPM process is “act”.
Now for the philosophy!
All we have in life is time and choice as to how to use that time. I am the sum of all my previous choices and those of my parents before me.
We are always making choices. To live is to choose. Even doing nothing is a choice. Some choices are better than others. What do I mean by better? Better choices are conscious choices. Better choices give us more choices in future. It is rare that we have no choice (although we will attempt to convince ourselves that it is so). Lots of choice can be overwhelming and confusing and means that we must take greater care as we make our choices. We reveal our choices through our behaviours. We can only influence our own behaviour. It is through our behaviour that we influence others. We are always influencing others through our behaviours.
Act
The final stage in the DPM process is “act”.
This is the difficult bit, aligning our behaviour consistently with our choice. This is about self control and flexibility. That is to say, being prepared to change if, in the light of observation, we need to revisit our choice. This means that we must monitor the impact of our activity by carefully observing. And we are back to where we started.
The language of systems
Cause and Effect Diagrams (CEDs) enable us to capture the important components in the system and the relationships between them using a simple language. By capturing these relationships explicitly on paper our knowledge can be better shared, challenged and understood.
The language we use has two components: variables (things that change in value) and relationships (how one variable affects another). Relationships are of two types: Supporting and Opposing.
Cause and Effect Diagrams (CEDs) enable us to capture the important components in the system and the relationships between them using a simple language. By capturing these relationships explicitly on paper our knowledge can be better shared, challenged and understood.
The language we use has two components: variables (things that change in value) and relationships (how one variable affects another). Relationships are of two types: Supporting and Opposing.
An example of a supporting relationship expressed in Jamie's manifesto is shown above. It says: knowledge of nutrition affects the quality of diet in the same direction all other things being held equal. That is to say, more knowledge leads to a better diet and less knowledge leads to a poorer diet.
In contrast above we have an example of an opposing relationship also expressed in Jamie's manifesto. It says: the quality of diet affects obesity in the opposite direction all other things being held equal. That is to say, a better diet leads to less obesity and a poorer diet leads to more obesity.
Putting the two relationships together shows us that nutritional knowledge affects diet which in turn affects obesity.
We can dig deeper by asking ourselves the questions “what else” has an impact and “how”. For example, what else affects quality of diet and how? What affects obesity and how? In this way we can develop a detailed diagram of how we believe the system we are considering works.
As we dig deeper we encounter feedback. This is a group of variables related to each other in a loop or cycle. An example can be seen below.
Putting the two relationships together shows us that nutritional knowledge affects diet which in turn affects obesity.
We can dig deeper by asking ourselves the questions “what else” has an impact and “how”. For example, what else affects quality of diet and how? What affects obesity and how? In this way we can develop a detailed diagram of how we believe the system we are considering works.
As we dig deeper we encounter feedback. This is a group of variables related to each other in a loop or cycle. An example can be seen below.
This diagram says that kid’s knowledge of nutrition affects parent’s knowledge of nutrition. This happens over a longer time frame as kid’s grow up to become parent’s themselves. Equally, parent’s knowledge of nutrition affects kids’ knowledge as parent’s pass their know-how on to their children. So, if kid’s knowledge increases, parent’s knowledge increases and vice versa. Once around the loop and we have reinforced the original behaviour we started with.
These reinforcing loops are the sources of huge growth and decline. Indeed, for the mathematicians, the pattern is exponential. The behaviour I have just described is virtuous but equally if we start with decreasing knowledge and follow the loop round the behaviour is vicious. Of course, we rarely see a single loop operating in isolation. Systems are all made of many loops like this.
Just as we have two types of relationship we have two types of feedback loop. The other type is balancing. An example is shown below.
These reinforcing loops are the sources of huge growth and decline. Indeed, for the mathematicians, the pattern is exponential. The behaviour I have just described is virtuous but equally if we start with decreasing knowledge and follow the loop round the behaviour is vicious. Of course, we rarely see a single loop operating in isolation. Systems are all made of many loops like this.
Just as we have two types of relationship we have two types of feedback loop. The other type is balancing. An example is shown below.
In the loop above, an increase in obesity leads to a decrease in quality of health. Jamie’s manifesto cites cancer, heart disease, stroke and diabetes as health conditions caused by obesity. As our health problems increase we will come under more pressure from health professionals and those who care for us to address our diet and hopefully our diet improves as a result and we will become less obese. Once around the loop and we have changed the original behaviour we started with.
Our diagrams can grow to be quite complicated as we explore the way we believe a system works.
Our diagrams can grow to be quite complicated as we explore the way we believe a system works.
Systems Thinking is very powerful especially when used in groups. By making our individual understanding explicit, it can be shared, challenged and understood by others. Together we create a group diagram with the benefit of pooled knowledge.
Once we have an agreed cause and effect map we can use software called "Vensim" to identify feedback and create driver trees. A free ple edition of this software is available to download at www.vensim.com.
Using maps to inform choice
These diagrams only make a contribution when they are linked to decision making and action ie when they are used to inform and explore choice.
To do this we need to understand:
• What variables in this system are within our influence? How can we influence them? How long will it take?
• What will happen over time if we take action on a variable? Are there any bad long term consequences? How can we mitigate them?
• Is our proposal a global system solution or does it simply mask the symptoms or move the problem elsewhere?
Often it is difficult to answer these questions with any degree of certainty. There are always risks. Under these circumstances it is important to regard any intervention as an experiment and to monitor the results carefully over time. The DPM approach can also help us to identify the key measurement points in the system so that we are able to do this effectively and efficiently.
Further examples of cause and effect maps can be found at http://causeeffectmaps.blogspot.com/
Thoughts on Jamie's Ministry of Food Manifesto
The first thing I do when reading a strategy document such as Jamie’s Manifesto is to try to draw the cause and effect diagram showing how the actions proposed will lead to the improvements promised. You can find out more about how to create a cause and effect diagram and, in particular, the diagram I created for Jamie's manifesto in my previous blog here.
Overall I found the diagram relatively easy to draw. This means that the manifesto is clearly written and internally consistent. I particularly admire how the proposals are about kicking off virtuous reinforcing feedback so that the impact is sustained. However, I do feel that there are some challenges which are not addressed and some missed opportunities.
Here are 3 challenges and 3 opportunties to get the debate started:
Challenge 1
Justify the link from cooking at home to obesity – how does that work? Obesity is not about what we eat – it is about calories in and calories out. The knowledge we need is about a balanced diet…..about nutrition. And about quantities (moderation). We need to start looking after our bodies properly. We don’t put the wrong fuel in our cars and expect them to work so why do we do this with our bodies? Actually cooking plays very little part in this. Most foods should be eaten in as close to their raw state as possible! Many of the cooks I know are overweight…..this is down to 2 factors quantity of calories consumed and lack of exercise. Gardening is not fittening….it supples and helps build muscle when done properly but there is little cardiovascular fitness achieved.
Why do we eat too much? How can we address root causes?
Challenge 2
Do we really need permanent centres? What happens when everyone has been reached? Couldn’t we just use existing facilities in schools and businesses rather than creating more buildings and further reinforcing global warming. When I was in University halls of residence we shared kitchen facilities. It was a great way of meeting, sharing ideas and discussing things while eating.
Challenge 3
Cheap food – Aldi and others already do this. Food should not be cheap. It is the most important thing we have. We want a fair price not a cheap price. The more farmers are squeezed, the less healthy will be the food. The French are used to paying more for ingredients because they value food. In the UK we don’t value food. We value entertainment not education and health. I think that it is this that we must aim to change.
Opportunity 1
People eating together and sharing (food and knowledge) is important….this builds communities. Stronger communities inhibit crime.
Opportunity 2
Vegetarianism is one of the most eco-friendly things we can do.
Opportunity 3
If bloggers on Jamie's website spent the time they spend sharing exotic recipes on teaching basic skills elsewhere then we may just achieve something very special. How can you make a difference?
Thoughts?
Once we have an agreed cause and effect map we can use software called "Vensim" to identify feedback and create driver trees. A free ple edition of this software is available to download at www.vensim.com.
Using maps to inform choice
These diagrams only make a contribution when they are linked to decision making and action ie when they are used to inform and explore choice.
To do this we need to understand:
• What variables in this system are within our influence? How can we influence them? How long will it take?
• What will happen over time if we take action on a variable? Are there any bad long term consequences? How can we mitigate them?
• Is our proposal a global system solution or does it simply mask the symptoms or move the problem elsewhere?
Often it is difficult to answer these questions with any degree of certainty. There are always risks. Under these circumstances it is important to regard any intervention as an experiment and to monitor the results carefully over time. The DPM approach can also help us to identify the key measurement points in the system so that we are able to do this effectively and efficiently.
Further examples of cause and effect maps can be found at http://causeeffectmaps.blogspot.com/
Thoughts on Jamie's Ministry of Food Manifesto
The first thing I do when reading a strategy document such as Jamie’s Manifesto is to try to draw the cause and effect diagram showing how the actions proposed will lead to the improvements promised. You can find out more about how to create a cause and effect diagram and, in particular, the diagram I created for Jamie's manifesto in my previous blog here.
Overall I found the diagram relatively easy to draw. This means that the manifesto is clearly written and internally consistent. I particularly admire how the proposals are about kicking off virtuous reinforcing feedback so that the impact is sustained. However, I do feel that there are some challenges which are not addressed and some missed opportunities.
Here are 3 challenges and 3 opportunties to get the debate started:
Challenge 1
Justify the link from cooking at home to obesity – how does that work? Obesity is not about what we eat – it is about calories in and calories out. The knowledge we need is about a balanced diet…..about nutrition. And about quantities (moderation). We need to start looking after our bodies properly. We don’t put the wrong fuel in our cars and expect them to work so why do we do this with our bodies? Actually cooking plays very little part in this. Most foods should be eaten in as close to their raw state as possible! Many of the cooks I know are overweight…..this is down to 2 factors quantity of calories consumed and lack of exercise. Gardening is not fittening….it supples and helps build muscle when done properly but there is little cardiovascular fitness achieved.
Why do we eat too much? How can we address root causes?
Challenge 2
Do we really need permanent centres? What happens when everyone has been reached? Couldn’t we just use existing facilities in schools and businesses rather than creating more buildings and further reinforcing global warming. When I was in University halls of residence we shared kitchen facilities. It was a great way of meeting, sharing ideas and discussing things while eating.
Challenge 3
Cheap food – Aldi and others already do this. Food should not be cheap. It is the most important thing we have. We want a fair price not a cheap price. The more farmers are squeezed, the less healthy will be the food. The French are used to paying more for ingredients because they value food. In the UK we don’t value food. We value entertainment not education and health. I think that it is this that we must aim to change.
Opportunity 1
People eating together and sharing (food and knowledge) is important….this builds communities. Stronger communities inhibit crime.
Opportunity 2
Vegetarianism is one of the most eco-friendly things we can do.
Opportunity 3
If bloggers on Jamie's website spent the time they spend sharing exotic recipes on teaching basic skills elsewhere then we may just achieve something very special. How can you make a difference?
Thoughts?
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